At the Web 2.0 Summit in San Francisco on October 20, Mary Meeker and team at Morgan Stanley presented a market analysis about the trends in the technology industry with a particular emPHAsis on the prospects for and impact of mobile computing. Here's a link to the full report called "Economy + Internet Trends":
The report covers a lot of ground. I was re-reading it this morning and have a thought about the chart below on page 32:
With each new phase or stage or era of computing the number of units sold goes up by an order of magnitude. Whether the numbers are actually this smooth or not the progression reflects what we all see on a day-to-day basis. Information technology is now present in most things that we do. In fact, is so prevalent that many relax or vacation by trying to get away from it.
From a business perspective the mobile phase will have profound impacts in terms of the ways that businesses go to market ("business model change" is the top issue found in a recent IBM survey of CIOs) and thus on how technology is designed, built, deployed and used in business.
Working on Step 2
I'd like to quibble with, to question, the arrow in this chart that says "Increasing Integration." At some point, roughly in the transition from mainframes and minicomputers to computing via desktops, the idea that we could achieve and deliver planned, central integration of IT became less tenuous.
Personal computing means individuals do as they please. They still can't "do as they please" with that portion of an Applications Portfolio that is delivered from the IT organization. Its hard to imagine that individuals should with "core" applications. But the PC widely popularized a trend that began with personal time-sharing like VM and TSO and put substantive amounts of the computing that occurs beyond the reach of the IT Architects and their IT Strategist forebears. Mobile computing greatly accelerates that trend.
Instead of "Increasing Integration" the chart could read "Increasing Interconnection," implying a larger portion of "organic" interactions between people and systems. Perhaps corporate IT and the IT Architects will increasingly establish and enable a set of capabilities that customers, partners/suppliers, and internal users will mold to their own use? Morgan Stanley's Internet Retailing Adoption model may be a guide:
For the interconnected mobile world an Enterprise Architect may be concerned with the "integration" of the Infrastructure and the Services but allow that the content used and the retail commerce (or its parallel) will be directed by un-integrated "market actions" or "market forces." Said another way, they're concerned with the interaction between core systems and capabilities and Das Kloud. Its the challenge of influence without control that is at the core of all meaningful governance discussions. But there's no going back. After all, "How can you keep them down on the farm after they've seen [Droid]?"